Violent Civil Unrest increases 10% / standard deviation of climate change.
Inter-Personal Violence increases 4% / standard deviation of climate change.
Such numbers are considered “Horrific!” by normal people and eyebrow raising by rich folk. Most of our food is grown in the north where it will get dry, hot, hungry and angry by 2050, all this will be happening while private food conglomerates get rich destroying 50% of our soil by 2050. Wait until ordinary people find out our grain reserves wore sold off during the last financial crisis in 2008.
As the Sahara desert skips across the Mediterranean Sea and invades Europe, the southern edge of the Sahara is turning green.
This greening area is called the Sahel, but temperatures in the Sahel are also expected to rise 2-3ºC by 2050. Populations of peoples across this stretch of Africa will reach 320 million by 2050, up from 30 million people in 1950. The demands on this expanding green area will be immense. Land grabs and rising inequality will get worse there as agriculture declines worldwide. But, even this is temporary as the tropics themselves become inhospitable to life by 2100.
So while populations, temperatures and moisture increases across the Sahel,
temperatures and drought will increase in Europe as refugees there will be met with ever increasing hostilities.
The expansion of the Sahara north will cause eastern Europe’s precipitation to decline as quickly as 30% by 2050. The rain that does fall will be more intense causing increased soil erosion and flooding.
The 1930s American Dust Bowl was caused by a 7% fall in rain and snow.
The 1930s Dust Bowl will be only one-third as bad as what’s coming.
The actual summer temperature increases to come combined with downpour and drought extremes will devastate tilled mono-cultures. That’s not even considering new disease and pest effects.
US Food Security
In his Climate Change And US Food Security video James Carter looks at a world map of Dry Days Per Year, at 13:00 on the timeline. You can see how badly Eastern Europe and Russia will be affected by this drought as the number of dry days per year scales upwards and onwards.
In the same video James also looks at a world map of Drought Due To Temperature Increases at 19:20 on the timeline. Again, notice how dry Eastern Europe and Russia look. Look at China. You will also notice you can see the greening of the Sahel plains under the Sahara.
James Carter’s website makes him sort of the Guy McPherson of the Farming Apocalypse in America. It’s also important to consider that the Ogallala Aquifer only replenishes itself at about 6% of its volume every 50 years. We will suck that baby dry at many times that rate.
World Violence Food Water And Population
This next video presents the three best reasons for the collapse of civilization and The Coming Age of Slaughter. It’s a presentation by the University of California. The 3 pessimistic optimists (or vice versa?) are…
- Claire Kremen who talks about Agricultural Conflict
- Solomon Hsiang who talks about Climate Stress And Political Conflict
- Malcolm Potts who talks about Population Conflict
Claire Kremen, the first speaker, presents a powerful lecture as she strafes the listener with an overwhelming barrage of facts in the first few minutes before she goes full frontal anecdotal about a no-till farmer named Brandt (@ 18:32 ). She lays out a very strong case against corporate farming practices and the importance of small farms. What bothers me is that knowing what to do is not the same as actually doing it. Claire starts at 1:18 on the timeline.
The second speaker, Solomon Hsiang, is extremely interesting albeit, after a few minutes explaining his methods. He compares a number of studies on crop, water and food stress and violence. He even shows a correlation between El Nino and unrest in South American states. It’s way well worth watching. He starts at 35:38 on the timeline.
The 2 most important facts he quantifies are:
- Inter-personal violence increases 4% per standard deviation of climate change.
- Civil violence increases 10% per standard deviation of climate change.
The third speaker, Malcolm Potts explains how a vast cohort of youth will descend upon cities looking for jobs that are not there and how this will lead to violence. He also explains very clearly that African fertility rates have more to do with Planned Parenthood than it does with education.
Again, I am bothered by knowing what to do instead of actually doing it. Malcolm appears at 1:00:00 on the timeline.
Easy Bake Collapse Recipe
Take one planet earth.
Add 9 billion people.
Boil until dry
Bake until brown.
Flambé until crisp.