Calculating The Human Tipping Point

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Resources, Habitat, Peace And Civilization all decline way faster than they grow.

In 2009, Scientific American said we will run out of soil in 60 years at current rates of degradation and loss. Sixty years kinda sticks in your head meaning you think you’re okay for now, but that is exactly not the case. What it means is that in like 30 years half our soil will be gone. We need 12 million acres of new soil or 30 years to feed humanity, but we are now losing 24 million acres of soil per year. That’s called double-or-nothing on a losing bet. There is nothing to indicate these numbers won’t accelerate. They are just calculations based on current values, but exponential change means those numbers will change, and change fast. Not in a good way.
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Take another example, water demand will exceed supply by 40% in 10 years. That means all hell breaks loose in 5 years and not that you have 10 more good years. But wait a minute, nothing says it can’t happen sooner and worser. It will, which way do you think things are going?
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You take any projection and assume it will get worse, and worser, fast and faster, and the odds are you’ll be right. Staring at one data set of numbers to the exclusion of all the others is like staring at the Queen of Hearts while the house falls down. So let’s add up all the accelerating rates of change.
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Sea level rise = accelerating
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Ocean deoxygenation = accelerating
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Ocean acidification = accelerating
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Soil degradation + loss = accelerating
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Mega Storms + Droughts = accelerating
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Resource depletion = accelerating
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Inequality = accelerating
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You get the idea, the list goes on and on, with each model forming a house of cards upon which civilization rests. I don’t believe McPherson is right when he says no humans in ten years. But does that even fucking matter? In ten years you won’t recognize your life. We are at the very tippy top peak of civilization, we will go on almost as we are for a few precious more years, but the rate of change will accelerate.
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They say human knowledge now doubles every 5 years. Well we’ve been bombing woman and children for 15 years now and I don’t feel any smarter. In fact, I’m pretty sure I’m getting stupider.
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4 thoughts on “Calculating The Human Tipping Point

  1. Robert Schick says:

    The latest delusion i’ve read of are the ‘experts’ who claim, seriously i couldn’t make this crap up, that plant breeders are the next of the chosen messiahs–the saviors–who are required to ‘save the planet’ (meaning homo stupidus). As an OSSI (Open Source Seed Initiative) plant breeder (you can find me on their site if you’re so inclined) this is beyond magical thinking laced with massive overdoses of denial. No one can breed plants to outrun the accelerating shitstorm that’s occurring now. It took, for example, Luther Burbank to ‘breed’ his Shasta Daisy 17 yrs! Most breeding ‘projects’ take on average at least 5-7 years and real plant breeders can only die laughing at these ‘experts’. With all the incoming weather changes plant breeders will be a worthless lot when nothing at all will grow. Endgame will be the only game on the planet. btfw: thanks for your blog…enjoy it and chuckle a lot. Dark humor amidst Reality–a good breeding mix.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. EtyerePetyere says:

    You see that`s the thing.. YOU ” don’t believe McPherson is right when he says no humans in ten years.” but talking about a human population etc tipping point and than listing all the critical components to it . Hoping you are right and one day it will validate you …With the special request of yours JUST NOT YET ! What makes you BELIEVE that it is not going to happen in 10 years time when you are the very one who is talking about a tipping point you know what comes after a tipping point ? And a tipping point can come in any minute . Well you are an egotistical asshole . Give us collapse just not yet . So just you can be right and eat your cake as well … Loser!

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    • Cory says:

      He didn’t disparage McPherson he just said he didn’t believe it. He could be wrong. I hope he’s closer to right for my own sake. As for proving anybody right I doubt we’ll be making internet comments when that time comes. I don’t get why so angry.

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