The 2017 Keeling Climate Lecture Data

Back in the old days of science, like 1950, you had to be an anal retentive chart geek and pretty handy with a pencil sharpener too. And Keeling was our man! So every year in honor of him, a University likes to produce a video called, “The Keeling Lecture”. If you watch the lecture, you’ll know what I mean. Here are the charts used in that lecture, because some people prefer reading to watching videos.

c1

We are headed full speed to the red one.

3

The yellow slit on the left pie chart is the historical contributions of poorer countries.
The green blob on the right chart shows developing countries getting hit hardest.

4

Top 10 make 70% of emissions. China #1 at twice the U.S.

5

From the above chart
Red = Rich: U.S. top emitter per capita on far left.
Orange = Middle Income: Big orange arrow facing down is China.
Yellow = Low Income: Big yellow arrow facing down is India.


Most of China and India wanna be like us, along with the rest of the world, and if markets warrant, we are doing everything we can to help them.

6 renewables can't even be seen on this chart

Renewables don’t even show up on the above graph from 2008 data.
Renewables likely now come in at 7-8% of total world energy demand.

7

The blue line is CO2, and the red bar on right is last year’s temperature. Notice the big jump. With more frequent and intense El Nino, La Nina and Ocean Decadal Oscillations, we are going to get more and bigger localized jumps and dips as temps become erratic.

8

The 1950 mark shows Keeling starting his data, he clocks in with CO2 at 318.
We are at 410 in 2017. We can easily double emissions by 2060 with BAU.

9

7 bad indicators going up.
3 good indicators going down.

10

Many of the world’s most important cities depend on glacial water.

12 ice models didn't predict this

Climate models did NOT predict Greenland’s 94% 2012 meltdown.

13crops composite

This is a 2050 map of the 13 top crops, red means big crop losses, green means more crops.
We will very likely have to double food by then. Seeing red on Brazil is bad.

14

In 2012 the Arctic ice loss was about the size of India.

15 size of india

Here’s how the Arctic ice is going this year, worse than 2012, the worst on record.

16

Here’s the 2003 heat wave that killed some 70,000 people in Europe.

17

Mediterranean Europe and the southwest U.S. are headed for long term droughts.

18

Along with drought will come hard rains, one 15 minute hard rain can wash away more soil than all the rest of the year. We will get both drought and floods, but don’t let the blue color in the chart below fool you.

19

Between the droughts and floods, thunderstorm lightning and wind will start more and longer lasting fires.

21

Insurance companies tell us the big disasters doubled since 1980. The red color means like volcanoes and earthquakes. It’s the blues, greens and oranges we gotta worry about.

22

As you can see, you can run but you just can’t hide.
This Munich RE chart is enough to make Warren Buffet cry like a little baby.

24

So much for the good news, here’s the bad news.

25

Above: Red, white and blue are all equal sizes. 1/3 of summers from 1950 to 1980 are cool, 1/3 normal, and 1/3 warm.

26

Above: In the 10 years from 1980 to 1990, you can see the above average days increasing in size.

27-1990

Above: From 2001 to 2010, you can see the red days getting bigger than ever, and cool days are shrinking. Here’s the bad part.

28

Above: From 2001 to 2010 on the above chart you can see extremely warm days used to cover one-tenth of land area, but now they cover 10% of the land.

29 -approaching 175 days over 95 when old

In fact, a child born today in Texas can see up to 175 days of summer over 90° F by old age. But, it gets worse.

30 - 2013 cool summer by 2040 normal summer 2060

The blue arrow above indicates the European heatwave of 2003 that killed 23,000 people in France. The summer of 2013 will be like a normal summer by 2040 (first orange arrow), and a cool summer by 2060 (second orange arrow).

33

It’s worth zooming in on the above map of global tipping points, many of which are irreversible and unstoppable once started. That’s the bad thing about “tipping points”.

Below is a map where climate change will threaten world security. Don’t even get me started on how these esteemed fart crackers totally ignore our current wars and plunder.

34

After all this, the presenter goes on about how wonderful the Paris agreement is, because that’s what scientists are told to do. Below is the video which is the source for the above charts. At 14:50 in the video, there’s a super cool GIF of world emissions that lasts 20 seconds.

 

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One thought on “The 2017 Keeling Climate Lecture Data

  1. Grim stuff, but I don’t think we’ll make it that far down the global warming rabbit hole before the financial system collapses, which will put and end to the industrial age.

    Like

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