A summary of a video by Peter North, IPCC expert
Food production across the US, Europe and Australia has dropped 19.9% because of drought, double the global average. (University of British Columbia 2016) While levels have since rebounded, things will get worse again.
The US mid-west is projected to exceed 2° C warming by 2035, 20 years earlier than the global mean average. The US mid-west is project to exceed 3° C warming by 2065, 30 years earlier than the global average. (Jan 2017)
Crop yields are highly sensitive to daytime temperatures of 30° C, or more, afterwhich yields drop off the charts. These temperature related yield drops do not account for droughts, pests and extreme weather effects, which will be plentiful. US crops will decrease 35-46% by 2100 under the slowest warming scenario.
The above yield drops only take into account temperature, and not drought. When you combine drought with temperatures, then all hell breaks loose. As you can see from the reds in the map below, the US grows most of its crops just south-west of the great lakes. The brown colors on the maps below indicate soil moisture loss. You see it affects the whole continental United States. This is called very, very bad news. This means less rain combined with increased ground water depletion. The slight blue tinge on the east coast is the area with increased soil moisture.
The drought map below compares both the length and duration of droughts (red is bad), and crop maps (red is good).
Look at the red circles on the maps for 3° C which is coming down the pike too soon.
This map is a best case scenario. See the drought in Europe and Brazil (purple is evil) and the browns in the world crop map below. The green in India means crazy strong monsoons that wash away soils.
Here’s a closeup of the US at 2.4°C. We are nearly half-way there, and there may be here sooner than you want.
The yellows in the Consecutive Dry Days are bad. Compare the yellows to the red crop map to the right. The yellows and reds line up. If you combine dry days and hot temperatures crops die. And this is only at 1.6° C.
Here are all the maps at 2-2.4° C warming, which hits the US crop maps 20 years earlier than everywhere else. You can see where the American flag lands on the year 2035 and a map of the whole world lands on the year 2045.
Combined emissions already equal 490 ppm., meaning we are already committed to 2.6° C warming no matter what. The US is committed to catastrophic yield drops because the daily temperature map, extreme heat and drought maps will combine to kick the shit out of the crop map. The above images are from a video made in February 2017, and crops across the globe have taken a big hit since then.
In another video Peter North points out that the oceans comprise 90% of earth’s biosphere, and they are in serious trouble. Most tipping points are in the Arctic and we already passed some, which means they will become unstoppable and irreversible. When too many tipping points are past, they pile up on one another and send runaway climate heating into overdrive. This is called a cascading runaway effect.
James Hansen points out that Atlantic ocean super mega monster storms will be here by 2050, and he means storms big enough to rain rocks. This means storms are going to get much, much worse. A bad storm washes away more soil in 15 minutes than anything else does all year long. James Hansen also says seas could rise by meters per decade as soon as 30 years because of Greenland glacial melt, and that none of Peter North’s IPCC projections account for that. This is why building wind turbines in oceans is foolish.
Combine this with the fact that we are supposed to grow 50% more food by 2050 while world water demand will exceed supply by 40%.
Combine this with fact that we are running out of soil so fast that by 2060 human agriculture will not exist. This means that by 2030, human existence will be hell for most of the poorer people on earth. And many of those poorer people will be in the Red states of America. The blue states along the coasts will suffer massive storm and flood damage.
Combine this with the fact that in less than one generation, mass extinction will go past a tipping point that becomes unstoppable and irreversible once species populations go down 75%. We are at 50%. Humans occupy 50% of land and consume 40% of the land’s green stuff each year, leaving little for critters.
The blue states are building a massive exotic mineral infrastructure that is brittle and a bubble that depends on oversea mining operations. We have spent the last 27 years bombing and killing Persians for oil, and we are going to spend the next 20 killing them for minerals.
Baidu will win the AI war with Google, meanwhile all the jobs and exotic mineral wealth are in China. The US will be left with high tech jets that can’t fly in the rain.They have taken their tax wealth and given it to the military, now that tax wealth is gone, they have taken their grandparents New Deal and turned it into a Raw Deal.